Exclusive: Labour poll boost as Gordon Brown heads for victory in Glasgow East

GORDON Brown is heading for a crucial by-election victory which will save his premiership, our exclusive poll reveals today.

Labour has a 14-point lead over the Scottish Nationalists in Glasgow East ahead of the July 24 contest, according to the Sunday Mirror/ICM Research poll.

It puts Labour on 47 per cent, with the SNP on 33, the Lib Dems on nine and the Tories in fourth place on seven per cent.

The survey is a huge boost for PM Mr Brown as it follows speculation he would face calls to quit if Labour lost the seat.

But Labour will see its 13,507 majority slashed in the seat where it commanded a huge 61 per cent of votes cast at the 2005 election.

Our poll shows a 15 per cent swing to the Scottish Nationalists who have almost doubled their backing from just 17 per cent in 2005.

The survey puts Labour candidate Margaret Curran on course for victory with a potential majority of 4,000 to 5,000 votes.

It is the first authoritative poll of the impending by-election Glasgow East - Labour's third safest seat in Scotland and 25th safest in the UK.

Labour had considered the constituency such a safe seat that it does not even have full records of its own supporters in the area.

The contest has been sparked by the resignation of Labour MP David Marshall, 67, who is standing down due to ill health.

A Labour victory would follow crushing two by-election defeats for PM Mr Brown and a series of gloomy opinion polls.

The Tories snatched the safe seat of Crewe and Nantwich in May and pushed Labour into a humilating fifth place in the fight to replace London Mayor Boris Johnson in Henley last month.

Tory leader David Cameron toured the constituency last week.  But support for the Tories has flatlined there at seven per cent - the same as in the 2005 election.

Allies of Mr Brown were last night pleased with their poll lead, but insisted Labour faced a tough battle to be sure of victory.

A senior source close to the PM said: "Traditionally, the turn-out in by-elections can be low.

"We need to pour all our efforts into making sure our supporters get out and vote.  It's going to be a long, hard graft."

* ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 516 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 10-11th July 2008. Interviews were conducted across Glasgow East and the results have been weighted to the profile of adults who live in the constituency.

POLITICAL EDITOR VINCENT MOSS WRITES:

IT'S been a long time since Gordon Brown woke up to find himself ahead in the polls.

But our survey shows Labour is on course to win in Glasgow East and see off the challenge from Alex Salmond's Scottish Nationalists.

Defeat in such a rock-solid Labour seat would make it almost impossible for the PM to hang on to his job.

It would leave dozens of panicking Labour MPs looking like certainties for the dole queue at the next general election.

The 15 per cent swing to the SNP is far from good news for Labour.  But after 11 years in power and with Britain on the brink of a recession, it could have been much worse.

Victory would secure Mr Brown's position for a while longer.  But Labour can't feel confident that today's drastically reduced lead is enough to guarantee a celebration in 11 days time.